MERLIN

Coordinator: Dr.-Ing. Rainer Friedrich, University of Stuttgart, Germany

Title: Multi-pollutant, Multi-Effect Assessment of European Air Pollution Control Strategies: an Integrated Approach

Aim: The aim of this project is the development of a computer-based model system to determine the bundle of measures for air pollution control and greenhouse gas emission reduction, that is capable of achieving compliance with air quality limit and target values (for emission, concentrations and deposition) for specific pollutants as well as for greenhouse gases at least-costs.

www: http://www.merlin-project.info/

Project summary

Aim and objectives of Project in relation to European AQ

The aim of this project is the development of both methodology and a computer-based model system to determine the bundle of measures controlling emissions of air pollutants as well as greenhouse gases (GHGs), that is capable of achieving compliance with air quality limit and target values (for emission, concentrations and deposition) and emission targets for GHGs at least-costs. Furthermore, the model will be used to calculate benefits, i.e. avoided damage costs by implementing air pollution control measures, first in a physical way, and in a second step - as far as possible - in monetary terms. Thus, costs and benefits of different bundles of measures can be estimated and cost-benefit analysis can be applied. In addition, macroeconomic effects and distributional impacts of pollution control strategies are determined.

Within this multi-pollutant multi-effect framework, the reduction of ambient concentrations of tropospheric ozone, particulate matter, heavy metals, NOx , the emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as acid deposition and eutrophication will be assessed. The instruments developed here will be applied and tested for compliance with the air quality limit values of the EC Air Quality Framework Directive (and its Daughter Directives), the EC National Emission Ceilings Directive, the UNECE critical loads for acid and nitrate deposition (e.g. using a gap-closure approach) and the reduction targets agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol.

While research in the past has mainly focused on single pollutants and/or effects, current studies have unanimously resulted in a strong vote for an integrated approach, since it has become clear that a simple addition of strategies that may be efficient for one pollutant/effect does not lead to an overall optimal pathway. Most abatement measures have an effect on the concentrations and deposition of several (primary and secondary) air pollutants. Thus, it is obvious, that an analysis that does not account for all benefits (and in some cases negative impacts also) of measures will not result in an overall optimal strategy. Furthermore, synergy effects of interconnected measures are not taken into account in single-pollutant/effect strategies, hence abatement costs are often overestimated in relation to the benefits achieved.

Core aims of the project are the development and the application of methodology and tools for an integrated assessment of European air pollution control strategies. By taking into account all relevant air pollutants and their effects on the human health, materials, crops and ecosystems, costs and benefits can be assessed in an integrated way. This allows for a consistent investigation of abatement costs, of benefits due to avoided damage costs and of their impacts on the economies. Since the EC is obliged to design efficient air pollution control strategies, cost-effectiveness of the selected approach is vital. In addition to that, the EC's social objectives require a thorough analysis of distributional effects between countries and different demographic groups, like effects on employment and economic development due to imposed abatement costs.

Special emphasis will be placed upon including the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the analysis.

The project shall start based on results from the EC funded research project INFOS (Assessment of Policy Instruments for Efficient Ozone Abatement Strategies in Europe) and extend the methodology used there towards a multi-pollutant-multi-effect approach to integrated assessment. In this context, integrated assessment does not only refer to integrating different assessment models, but taking into account aspects of economic impacts, equity and distributive effects and efficiency in the assessment of air pollution control strategies

Project tasks

Regarding the overall objectives described above, the following tasks have to be carried out in the project:

• preparation of input data
  • development of scenarios for high resolution emission data for European and urban scale modelling
  • preparation of input data on abatement measures and costs, both for technical and non-technical measures
• development and application of an integrated assessment model (covering all relevant sectors and pollutants)
  • on the European scale
  • on the urban scale
• development of a methodology to assess macroeconomic and distributional effects
• application of the model framework
  • finding optimal strategies for implementation
  • cost-benefit analysis of control strategies to achieve air quality targets
  • assessment of optimised strategies with the Eulerian EMEP model
  • macroeconomic impact assessment and distributional analysis

The model area will be the whole of Europe. Emission reduction measures will be analysed for EU countries as well as the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe, an extension of the project to include three additional partners from Central and Eastern Europe has improved the coverage of Accession countries significantly.

In this respect, the project goes in line with the ongoing development for multi-effect assessment in Europe, such as the multi-effect protocol outlined by UNECE and the activities towards the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) strategy by DG Environment. This current development of a CAFE strategy could benefit considerably from MERLIN, applying the tools and methodology developed here to design efficient air pollution control strategies in a multi-effect based approach. Furthermore, each EU member state could apply the tools to determine the best way to implement measures to comply with the European strategy in a cost-benefit assessment.