FUMAPEX

Coordinator: Dr Alexander Baklanov, DMI, Denmark

Title: Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure

Aim: To improve meteorological forecasts for urban areas and link Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to Urban Air Pollution and exposure models leading to an improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecast System for application in cities in various European climates.

www: http://fumapex.dmi.dk/

Project summary

1. Problems to be solved

Most major European conurbations experience severe short-term pollution episodes that are harmful to the environment and to human health, especially for children and the elderly. The European Environment Agency evaluated that more than 40 million people, living in 115 major urban areas in Europe, are exposed to pollutant levels that exceed the reference levels stated by the World Health Organisation. EU Air Quality Directives and national regulatory legislation were introduced to abate these adverse effects.
In order to diminish or prevent critical concentration levels, abatement action (such as traffic reduction) should be planned at least one or two days in advance. Often no effective action can be imposed because no or only inadequate forecasting models exist. In some European cities, early warning systems like Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems (UAQIFS) are already employed. They need to be improved, verified, supplemented by population exposure models, and then implemented more widely in Europe for providing better protection of human and environmental health in cities and urbanised regions with an ever-increasing part of the population

2. Scientific objectives and approach

The quality of the urban air pollution forecast and the UAQIFS critically depends on the mapping of emissions, the urban air pollution (UAP) models, and the meteorological data. The quality of the meteorological data should be largely enhanced by using downscaled data from advanced numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These different topics, as well as the application of population exposure models, have traditionally been treated in distinct scientific and administrative communities whose expertise needs to be combined to enhance the possibilities of forecasting air pollution episodes in European cities. The main objectives of the project are thus the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of NWP models to UAP and exposure models, the building of improved UAQIFS, and their application in cities in various European climates.
The necessary steps will evolve in ten separate, but inter-linked Work Packages realised by 16 participants and 6 subcontractors. They represent leading NWP centres, research organisations, and organisations responsible for urban air quality, population exposure forecast and control, and local/city authorities from ten European countries.

3. Expected impacts

The main impact of FUMAPEX will be improved, validated, inter-compared, and accessible UAQIFS implemented in an increasing number of European cities. Forecast and prevention of the worst air pollution episodes in large cities according to air quality directives will lead to an improved quality of human life and of the environment.
Additional impacts are the potential use of improved weather and pollution forecasts for emergency management (fires, accidental emissions) and for long-term air quality management (scenario studies, emission abatement strategies, sustainable city life). Linking scientists and administrators of different specialisation will also lead to speed-up and innovation in related urban research and application addressed by FP5 (e.g. urban climate, sustainable transport, environment, health).